Severe Weather Outbreak – Significant Tornado Threat Today

Significant Tornado Threat UPGRADED to “Moderate Risk” Level 4/5 For Today’s Severe Weather Outbreak

Several tornadoes – A few could be strong (EF-2+)
Very Large Hail – Up to Baseball Size (Severe – per SPC) – 2 Inches
Damaging Wind Gusts – Some 75+ mph

Several tornadoes, including the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail and damaging winds are expected this afternoon through tonight, especially across parts of central/east Texas into western Louisiana..

Expectations are for an initially semi-discrete supercellular mode with very large hail and some tornado potential, transitioning by evening to the potential for large hail/damaging winds and tornadoes as storms spread east-northeastward with a more complex convective mode gradually evolving.
Tornado Probabilities

Potential remains apparently for a couple of long-tracked supercells emanating from near the I-35 corridor in central/south-central Texas east-northeastward into parts of east Texas.
Large Hail Probabilities
Damaging Wind Gusts Probabilities

All severe hazards will remain possible through the overnight, although!
Looking ahead this system will shift east overnight and into tomorrow across Louisiana and Mississippi where a regional “Tornado Outbreak” – Moderate Risk – is issued!

Tuesday’s Moderate Risk Outlook

A regional severe weather outbreak — including potential for significant/damaging tornadoes — remains evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region Tuesday.

Significant & Damaging Tornadoes – A few could be Strong (EF-2+)
Large Hail & Damaging Wind Gusts

Indications are that an outbreak of severe storms remains likely Tuesday, centered across the lower Mississippi Valley region and vicinity.
Strongly rotating storms are expected through the morning, spreading out of east Texas and into Louisiana. Tornadoes — including potential for significant events — remain a likelihood, along with damaging winds and hail.
Tornado Probabilities 
Any pre-frontal cell would quickly acquire updraft rotation, and would pose potential for significant/damaging tornadoes.
As such, some areas may experience more than one round of potentially significant weather.
Damaging Wind Gusts Probabilities 
Large Hail Probabilities

Severe/tornado risk will continue through the evening/overnight as the cold front — and associated pre-frontal convection — advances.

At this time, it appears risk may extend as far east as eastern Alabama and western parts of the Florida Panhandle late in the period.

Are you prepared?
Now will be a good time to check your weather radios and have several ways to receive watches & warnings!

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