Significant Tornado Threat w/Long-track Intense EF2-EF3+, Hurricane Force Winds & Large Hail to 3 inches – Moderate Risk Issued!


A significant tornado threat is expected today as intense storms develop.
This brings the threat of a few intense and strong long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes, very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and damaging winds that some could be hurricane force across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

(Tornado Probabilities)

A regional severe-weather outbreak is expected from north TX across OK into KS with strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds all part of a long-duration threat.

The initial severe/tornado threat has already begun near Caprock from Lubbock to Childress – Despite the unusually early start, there will be the potential for embedded supercells capable of all hazards as the storms overspread western/northern OK into southern KS through midday.

(Damaging Winds Probabilities)

An outflow boundary and/or differential heating corridor is likely in the immediate wake of these morning storms from southern KS into north central and southwest OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon along this zone and the dryline to the south into TX, and storms will spread generally northeastward toward southern/central OK and southeast KS.
A favorable environment will be in place for tornadic supercells, including the potential for long-track EF2-EF3+ tornadoes.
The significant tornado threat will be greatest if semi-discrete supercells can be maintained well into the afternoon/evening.
Very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense supercells.
(Hail Probabilities)

The storm evolution has the potential to be a bit messy with multiple training/conjoined supercells, posing a relatively long-duration and repeat threat to areas within the training storm corridors across the central third of OK.
Damaging winds will become more probable with storm clustering, and there will likely be upscale growth into a larger QLCS this evening into tonight as the primary shortwave trough approaches from the west.
The potential for tornadoes with embedded circulation will continue into the overnight hours, along with damaging winds.
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