Very Large Hail 3+ Inches, Strong Tornadoes & Damaging Winds (60-80mph)– Moderate Risk Issued!

A MODERATE RISK has been issued for very large hail (3-inchs and greater), potentially strong tornadoes up to EF2+, and severe damaging wind gusts (60-80 mph) across north Texas and Oklahoma, across parts of the ozarks and into the lower Ohio River Valley this afternoon into tonight!

For areas across KS/MO/IL/IN through tonight…

(Tornado Probs)

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely starting mid afternoon from KS into MO. Storms will subsequently spread eastward along the warm front from MO into IL/IN.

The environment will favor supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and a few tornadoes, with an isolated strong tornado possible.

Storm mode will become messier into the overnight hours with upscale growth into clusters/line segments, with an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph), and a continued threat for tornadoes (possibly up to EF2) with embedded/QLCS circulations.

(Damaging Wind Gusts Probs)

For the areas across OK/TX this afternoon into early tonight…

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline from northwest TX into western OK, and storms will spread quickly northeastward into central/eastern OK through this evening/early tonight.

The environment will be favorable for multiple supercells with very large hail (3 inches in diameter or greater). The magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit less certain given a weakness in the low-level shear until a more consolidated low-level jet response begins by late evening, when storm mergers and upscale growth become more probable into eastern OK/northwest AR/southwest MO early tonight.

(Hail Probs)

However there will be the potential for a couple of strong (roughly EF2) tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight.

Stay tuned for live team storm chasing update!

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