Hurricane Hunters Report Barry Is Strengthening
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday.
Hurricane Wind Speed Probability
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.
KEY SUMMARY – Tropical Storm Barry
Life-Threatening Flooding is Expected!
Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances.
Now is the time to prepare!
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