Significant Severe Storms expected for Sunday, April 19, 2020 – Tornadoes & Damaging Winds!

Round 2 of Severe Storms and Tornadoes after Easter Sunday’s Deadly Storms!

Severe storms are likely Sunday across the Gulf Coast states. The greatest threat appears to be from Louisiana to Georgia, with significant severe storms expected including tornadoes and damaging winds. Large hail is likely as well.

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Severe Weather Outlook as it stands! 

A low-amplitude shortwave trough with 60-70 kt midlevel speed max will move from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley during the day, and will reach the East Coast by 12Z Monday.

Preceding this trough, a broad area of 50 kt midlevel westerlies will exist across the entire southeastern CONUS. At the surface, mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north behind a warm front, located roughly from southern AR to central MS, AL and GA by 18-21Z. Meanwhile, a dryline will develop eastward across TX, with a weak surface low near the ArkLaMiss by 00Z.

As the shortwave trough approaches, southwesterly 850 mb winds will increase to 30-40 kt during the day, and over 50 kt after 00Z. This will result in an expansive area of favorable moisture, instability and shear, with numerous severe storms possible through the period.

…East TX to GA and SC…

Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over northern MS and AL related to warm advection.

These storms may pose a hail threat initially. With time, these storms may transition to surface based, with an evolving threat of damaging winds or tornadoes from AL into GA coincident with a 300+ m2/s2 ESRH max.

To the west, other storms are likely early to midday over eastern TX, but storm mode is uncertain. Given the increasing lift, especially after 18Z across LA and MS, an MCS will be possible. In addition, supercells, possibly tornadic, may form ahead of any MCS over LA and MS.

The general model trend is for upscale growth, and this could be a combination of storm modes. At any rate, tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail will all be possible.


SPC/Storm Prediction Center: Jewell.. 04/17/2020