Long-track significant Tornadoes and Damaging winds threat exist today!
Significant tornado and wind damage event expected. Flooding is also a HUGE concern for this very same area.
A few strong tornadoes, as well as damaging winds and isolated large hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening primarily across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.
These storms will be fast-moving and any tornado could be long-track tornadoes. Damaging winds are also a threat as the line builds and pushes off to the east into the evening hours. Isolated large hail is also possible, Though limited the potential exists. We will have live team field coverage on our facebook page found here
Storm Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE Risk!
(First MODERATE risk for the 2019 storm season)
Tornado: 15% Wind: 30% Hail: 15%
Categorical Day 1 Outlook
MS/AL/TN area today into early tonight
A surface cyclone across the northern TX Panhandle will translate quickly northeastward to the mid-MS Valley by this evening and the upper Great Lakes overnight. The cyclone will deepen rapidly in conjunction with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough and the left-exit region of a strengthening (100+ kt) mid-upper jet streak.
The deepening cyclone will draw the moist warm sector northward from LA/MS/AL this morning to the TN Valley later this afternoon/evening to the east of a weak cold front/pseudo-dryline, as a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops within the northern part of the warm sector.
Marginally severe hail could occur with the stronger elevated storms across the mid-MS Valley, but the primary severe threat is expected farther to the south in the surface warm sector. Convection will increase in coverage/intensity beginning this morning across east TX as large-scale ascent encounters the west edge of the moist sector, and storms will subsequently spread northeastward to the Ark-La-Miss and Mid South through early afternoon.
Isolated large hail will be the main threat with the storms this morning. Farther east, surface heating in cloud breaks will result in destabilization within the open warm sector across MS by early afternoon.
Surface temperatures in the mid-upper 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-70 F will support afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, with only weak convective inhibition. Semi-discrete storms are expected within the lingering band of morning convection, and in the open warm sector, given strong deep-layer shear and substantial cross-boundary shear vectors.
The tornado threat will be greatest from about 20-03z from central/northern MS into western/northern AL and southern middle TN. Strong tornadoes will be possible given 0-1 km/effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear near 60 kt in a moist environment.
Thereafter, storms should weaken by 03-06z, though isolated tornado/damaging wind potential could persist a little longer into northeast AL/northwest GA where storms will encounter a remnant wedge front.
Flooding is a HUGE concern with much of the anticipated impact zone already flooded, near flood stage or ground nearly if not already saturated.
Areas that have already received 4+ inches will likely see similar numbers again today.
NOW IS THE TIME TOO BE PREPARED!
Please have your weather radios on, have a plan in place and pay close attention to local NWS warnings and instructions.
If you are in a flood zone that is to be impacted PLEASE pay close attention to local management and instructions if told to leave. Always remember to Turn Around, Don’t Drown & When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!
Stay tuned also to our facebook page (here) for updates, live stream coverage, videos, & photos!
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