Severe Weather Large Hail and Tornadoes (including strong tornadoes) Possible Today!

Large Hail and Tornadoes (including strong tornadoes) Possible Today

Severe thunderstorms are forecast today from parts of eastern Oklahoma into western Tennessee/Kentucky. There is a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks of southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, and northeast Oklahoma.

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Increased Severe Weather Outlook

Tornado Probabilities INCREASED since this morning!

Hail Probabilities 

Wind Probabilities 

 …MO/AR/KY/TN this afternoon…
Multiple clusters and lines of storms are affecting eastern KS, western MO, and northwest AR this morning. There have been numerous reports of large/very large hail and damaging winds with this activity.

Model guidance suggests that the primary corridor of severe threat through the afternoon will focus across southern MO
and northern AR, then extend southeastward along a weak baroclinic zone into parts of TN. The risk of hail will persist, but continued destabilization should also increase the risk of damaging winds or even an isolated tornado or two.

…OK/KS/MO/AR/TX this afternoon and evening…
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northwest OK with the dryline extending southward into western north TX. This dryline will surge eastward today as a cold front sags across KS into OK.  Current indications are that the triple-point of the cold front and dryline will be over far northeast OK by late afternoon.

There is also a subtle warm front extending from northeast OK into central AR. This boundary will lift slowly northward as well. The result will be a zone of low-level convergence and rapid thunderstorm development in the 3-5pm period over extreme southeast KS, northeast OK, and southwest MO.

These storms will be in an environment of very high CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Low-level shear profiles will also be very strong – especially in vicinity of the warm front where backed surface winds will enhance 1km helicity values over 500 m2/s2. Storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes (including strong tornadoes).

The primary negative factor for tornado risk is the linear forcing
mechanism along the cold front, which may result in undercutting and a transition to linear storm structures within a couple of hours of initiation. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward across northern AR after dark with a hail/wind and isolated tornadorisk.

Farther south along the dryline and cold front, storms should develop through the late afternoon and evening across the eastern half of OK and perhaps into north TX. Very large hail is the primary risk with these storms.