Severe Weather Including The Threat of Tornadoes, Large Hail & Damaging Winds

UPDATED: All modes of weather possible today – Weather Threat Increasing!

Severe thunderstorms appear possible through tonight over a broad part of the central U.S., with the greatest threats over parts of southeastern Nebraska/southern Iowa/northern Missouri, and from parts of the eastern Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley

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Todays Enhanced Severe Weather Outlook

 

Tornado Probability

Damaging Winds Probability

Large Hail Probability

…Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley…

An ejecting low-amplitude shortwave trough and its broad, strong low-level jet is resulting in a favorable kinematic environment for organized severe storms over a broad region today. However, widespread areas of rain and clouds are slowing destabilization over a large part of the warm sector.

Pockets of heating will eventually promote gradual destabilization over a portion of this region with additional storms expected to intensify along warm conveyor belt from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and OH Valley region.

Large 0-1 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear within a modestly unstable environment (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support potential for supercells and bowing line segments capable of damaging wind, tornadoes and hail.

..Northern MO/NE/IA and vicinity…

Scattered thunderstorms, including several supercells should develop in one or two arcs today, near the southern NE/IA warm front and across parts of northeastern KS/northwestern MO, near the nose of a low/middle-level dry slot forced by the ejecting shortwave trough.

Deep-layer forcing for ascent will strengthen through the day as the mid/upper perturbation approaches. The related mass response will lead to increasing low-level lift and backing of surface flow along and very near the warm front, though veered surface winds are probable southward into the warm sector.

The frontal zone will act as a localized low-level SRH/lift maximum, supporting tornado potential with any storms that can maintain enough residence time in it before encountering too much poleward stable air.

Thermodynamic support will arise from steepening midlevel lapse rates, diurnal surface heating behind early cloud cover/precip, and a ribbon of favorable low-level moisture advection into the corridor. Forecast soundings suggest dew points ranging from low 50s west to low/mid 60s east can support a ribbon of 1500-2500 J/kg peak MLCAPE over parts of southeastern NE, northwestern MO, northeastern KS and southwestern IA.

Buoyancy should decrease eastward amidst weaker lapse rates, and westward amidst less moisture. Deep shear will be highly variable under strongly difluent mid/upper-level flow, with contribution from near-frontal backing, but generally stronger near the Missouri Valley and over IA.

The convective regime and associated severe potential should spread eastward across the outlook area into early evening.