Severe Weather Impacts Today; TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are likely this evening and overnight across the ArkLaMiss region and Tennessee Valley
10% Tornado Probability
30% Wind Probability
5% Hail Probability
Simulated RADAR Reflectivity
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are likely this evening and overnight across the ArkLaMiss region and Tennessee Valley.
…ArkLaMiss this evening to the TN Valley overnight…
A mid-upper jet streak over the Red River Valley of TX/OK will
progress east-northeastward to the OH Valley overnight, within a
broad cyclonic flow regime over much of the central/northern CONUS.
Cyclogenesis in association with the left-exit region of the jet is
expected from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, and the
influence of the cyclogenesis will extend far enough south to draw
low-level moisture northward today into tonight from the Gulf Coast.
The surface warm sector is confined to southeast TX and the LA coast
as of mid morning, with extensive low clouds to the north in the
developing warm advection regime across the lower MS Valley.
Strengthening low-level flow will result in fairly rapid moisture
transport to the northeast just above the surface today, and will
contribute to elevated thunderstorm development across MO/AR. The
northeastward progress of the surface warm sector will be slower,
with boundary-layer dewpoints into the upper 60s and at least weak
surface-based buoyancy expected into the ArkLaMiss by this evening.
The initial elevated storms could pose a marginal hail threat into
the afternoon, though the more substantial storms rooted near the
surface are not expected until closer to 00z across northern
LA/southeastern AR. Wind profiles will become favorable for
supercells (effective SRH 400-600 m2/s2), and assuming sufficient
destabilization with mid 60s dewpoints into middle TN and upper 60s
into northern MS by tonight, there will be a threat for tornadoes,
including a couple of strong tornadoes. Convection will
subsequently spread northeastward along a cold front and likely
evolve into a QLCS. Low-midlevel flow of 50-70 kt, large curved
hodographs, and weak buoyancy in a narrow corridor ahead of the
front will support a threat for damaging winds and tornadoes with
embedded circulations into the overnight hours.