Severe Thunderstorms & Tornado Threat Increasing
Severe weather & storms are expected to form this afternoon across west central and central Texas.
The severe threat will spread eastward this evening through tonight from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. Large hail will be possible in Texas this afternoon, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes the main threats this evening and overnight.
Tornado Threat Increased In Size
Damaging Winds also has Increased
There is a chance for LARGE hail, although limited the chance is there
A deep midlevel trough over NM and northern Mexico will eject northeastward over central TX and OK by tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis will occur today across the southern High Plains, with the cyclone expected to develop northeastward across KS tonight. Strengthening southerly low-level flow is transporting low-level moisture northward across the southern Plains this morning, with boundary-layer dewpoints in mid-upper 50s across northwest TX and upper 60s in south TX. The moisture has contributed to widespread cloud cover, with elevated thunderstorms ongoing from central TX into western OK within the warm advection regime.
Given the presence of midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km and MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, some hail may occur with these elevated storms the next few hours. The primary severe threat will begin early this afternoon along the southern fringe of the warm advection zone in central TX, where storms could be rooted at the surface. Effective SRH > 300 m2/s2 and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for supercells with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes, in addition to isolated large hail/damaging winds.
Simultaneously, the strong band of ascent along the Pacific cold front will encounter the west edge of the moist sector early this afternoon across west central TX. Moderate buoyancy and strong vertical shear will favor relatively rapid development of a line of storms along the front, with the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail with the stronger embedded cells. An isolated tornado will also be possible. The frontal line of storms should consolidate this evening from central TX into OK and then move eastward through the overnight hours.
Damaging winds and tornadoes with embedded circulations will be possible. The greater threat will be in TX with buoyancy rooted at the surface with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s. The northern extent of the threat is more uncertain into OK, though forecast soundings show some potential for moist neutral profiles into southern and central OK just ahead of the squall line.
Please Stay Weather Aware Today and have those Weather Radios on!