Severe Thunderstorms, Including a Few Tornadoes, and Flooding Forecasted!

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather as thunderstorms!
Storms will develop through the day from northeast Texas into Arkansas and portions of the mid-South.
The main threats will be hail and damaging wind, but a couple of tornadoes are possible.


Tornado Watch for portions of

Central and Eastern Arkansas
Southwest Kentucky
Missouri Bootheel
Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee
Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CST.
Primary threats include…
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch area through the afternoon and evening hours – with a few intense thunderstorms expected.
Damaging winds are the most likely threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most organized storms.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Is Issued!
Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify over parts of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds.

Storms will spread into western Arkansas in a few hours. An isolated tornado is also possible.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Arkansas
Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1045 AM until 600 PM CST.

Primary threats include…
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

Severe Weather Threat!

A positively-tilted upper-level trough within the Four Corners region will continue to sag southeastward today with a closed low aloft eventually developing across AZ/NM.
A broad swatch of strong mid-level flow will exist from the Texas Big Bend into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
At the surface, a cold front extends from a central WI surface low southeastward into MO/OK and west TX. The front will be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon.

Outlook Probabilities

Tornado Probabilities!

Damaging Wind Gusts Probabilities!

Hail Probabilities

…ARKLATEX into the Mid-South…

Upper 60s to around 70 F dewpoints are situated to the south of the southeastward moving cold front. Broken cloud cover, particularly in the ARKLATEX region has allowed temperatures to rise to the low 70s F.
Areas that continue to see broken cloud cover will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon.

Effective shear values of 50-70 kts will support organized storm structures.

Deep-layer shear is generally parallel to the front and will generally favor linear storm mode, though supercells ahead of and embedded within the line are possible.
Large hail will be possible, particularly early in the convective cycle. An area of greater hail risk is evident within the ARKLATEX given this morning’s observed upstream mid-level lapse rates.

Very large hail will be possible in this region. Damaging wind gusts will generally be the primary threat as convection evolves and grows upscale along the boundary.
Low-level hodographs are supportive of a risk for tornadoes. Again, the linear storm mode and the weakness in the flow around 700 mb in both observed and forecast soundings should limit the overall potential. However, a few embedded supercell and mesovortex tornadoes within the convective line may occur.

…South TX…
A conditional threat for large hail will exist from the Edwards Plateau into parts of South Texas.
There is continuing uncertainty with whether storms will develop based on the latest guidance.However, deep-layer shear will be strong and forecast soundings indicate very long hodographs. Should storms develop, they will likely be elevated supercells behind the front. SPC/Storm Prediction Center: ..Wendt.. 02/28/2021

Flooding Threat!

The heaviest additional rain will fall through Monday morning in parts of Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama.
Some of these areas may pick up an additional 3 inches of rain or more.

This additional rain, on top of what has already fallen, is likely to trigger additional flash flooding, particularly in hilly terrain and at least some minor to locally moderate river flooding.

The National Weather Service has issued flood watches from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians

(Image Provided by Pivatal Weather)

Are you prepared?

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