Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected mainly Monday
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
Prerecorded – LIVE
CORRECTED SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY TO 10%
…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado: 10% SIG – Enhanced
Wind: 30% SIG – Enhanced
Hail: 5% – Margina
…SUMMARY…
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected mainly Monday evening and overnight from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky.
Simulated RADAR Reflectivity
Significant Tornado Probs
Supercell Composite
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
…Synopsis…
Within a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft across the CONUS, a
shortwave trough will move from the ArkLaTex Monday afternoon
northeastward across the OH Valley during the night. This wave will
take on a negative tilt, with the greatest height falls/cooling
aloft from northern AR into OH while height tendencies remain
neutral overnight across the Gulf Coast states. Winds aloft will
continually increase through the period, with strong large-scale
lift mainly from TN northward toward the Great Lakes.
At the surface, a broad area of southerly winds will allow a
northward return of 60s F dewpoints from eastern TX into the lower
MS Valley during the day, and into TN and KY overnight. This will
aid in gradual destabilization which when combined with very strong
shear profiles will support the potential for corridors of damaging
severe storms.
…ArkLaMiss northeastward into Kentucky…
The rapid warm advection and moistening from the south will likely
lead to extensive low cloud cover over much of the area ahead of the
cold front which will limit low-level lapse rates/heating.
Therefore, most of the destabilization will be due to low-level
moisture advection and cooling aloft. This will occur first across
AR and southern MO during the afternoon, and elevated storms capable
of hail are possible. Not until after 00Z will destabilization occur
farther north and east across northern MS/AL, TN, and KY, where
shear will be strongest. Storms are expected to intensify along the
southern periphery of the warm advection storms, as the air mass
becomes more supportive of surface based convection, likely near the
AR/MS border. It should be noted that too much coverage of these
earlier storms could push the greatest threat corridor east, or
diminish it faster than expected from the west.
The cold front will then increase lift as it emerges into MS, TN,
and KY, with a QLCS likely. Both damaging winds and tornadoes will
be possible, with tornado potential more heavily weighted toward
areas with warmer, more unstable air from northern MS across middle
TN and perhaps southern KY and northwest AL. A strong tornado cannot
be ruled out, with effective SRH potentially to 500 m2/s2.
Severe wind gusts, along with a lesser tornado threat, will exist
with storms along the trailing cold front across the remainder of MS
and AL.
…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado: 10% SIG – Enhanced
Wind: 30% SIG – Enhanced
Hail: 5% – Marginal
