Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected mainly Monday

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

Prerecorded – LIVE

CORRECTED SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY TO 10%

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…

Tornado:  10% SIG – Enhanced

Wind:     30% SIG – Enhanced

Hail:      5%     – Margina

…SUMMARY…

Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected mainly Monday evening and overnight from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky.

Simulated RADAR Reflectivity

Significant Tornado Probs

Supercell Composite 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

…Synopsis…

Within a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft across the CONUS, a

shortwave trough will move from the ArkLaTex Monday afternoon

northeastward across the OH Valley during the night. This wave will

take on a negative tilt, with the greatest height falls/cooling

aloft from northern AR into OH while height tendencies remain

neutral overnight across the Gulf Coast states. Winds aloft will

continually increase through the period, with strong large-scale

lift mainly from TN northward toward the Great Lakes.

At the surface, a broad area of southerly winds will allow a

northward return of 60s F dewpoints from eastern TX into the lower

MS Valley during the day, and into TN and KY overnight. This will

aid in gradual destabilization which when combined with very strong

shear profiles will support the potential for corridors of damaging

severe storms.

…ArkLaMiss northeastward into Kentucky…

The rapid warm advection and moistening from the south will likely

lead to extensive low cloud cover over much of the area ahead of the

cold front which will limit low-level lapse rates/heating.

Therefore, most of the destabilization will be due to low-level

moisture advection and cooling aloft. This will occur first across

AR and southern MO during the afternoon, and elevated storms capable

of hail are possible. Not until after 00Z will destabilization occur

farther north and east across northern MS/AL, TN, and KY, where

shear will be strongest. Storms are expected to intensify along the

southern periphery of the warm advection storms, as the air mass

becomes more supportive of surface based convection, likely near the

AR/MS border. It should be noted that too much coverage of these

earlier storms could push the greatest threat corridor east, or

diminish it faster than expected from the west.

The cold front will then increase lift as it emerges into MS, TN,

and KY, with a QLCS likely. Both damaging winds and tornadoes will

be possible, with tornado potential more heavily weighted toward

areas with warmer, more unstable air from northern MS across middle

TN and perhaps southern KY and northwest AL. A strong tornado cannot

be ruled out, with effective SRH potentially to 500 m2/s2.

Severe wind gusts, along with a lesser tornado threat, will exist

with storms along the trailing cold front across the remainder of MS

and AL.

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…

Tornado:  10% SIG – Enhanced

Wind:     30% SIG – Enhanced

Hail:      5%     – Marginal