A severe multi-day weather outbreak will bring all modes of severe hazards!
Damaging Winds, Hail, Tornadoes (some could be strong), and Flooding.
We are going to be looking at several stories with this system, Winter Weather, Severe Weather, and Major Flooding!
But for now, we are going to just briefly highlight the severe weather side of things as we are still days away.
Are you prepared?
Now will be a good time to check your weather radios and have several ways to receive warnings
Friday Severe Weather Outlook
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook
A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast toward central AR by 12z Saturday.
Ahead of the low, rich Gulf moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak.
While some questions remain over how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday.
Mixed convective modes are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes, especially from east TX through central MS/AL. Beyond Saturday, a reprieve from severe potential is expected on Day 6/Sun as high pressure builds over the east and the surface cold front stalls near the southeast Atlantic coast and northern Gulf coast.
However, some severe potential could return early next week as a mean trough is forecast to persist across the western half of the country while shortwave impulses eject east/northeast from the southern Plains through the Midwest on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. Confidence in how much the airmass will be able to recover and destabilize remains in question, as the southeastern U.S. is forecast to receive quite a bit of rain. As such, confidence is too low to include severe probs at this time. > SPC: Leitman.. 01/07/2020