Mother Nature’s New Year’s Fireworks – Severe Weather

A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today through Tonight

New Years Eve Severe Weather to end the 2018 Callander!

Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible mainly across parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama through the afternoon and early evening.

Heating/destabilization this afternoon will allow for a gradual intensification of updrafts near/ahead of the advancing front. Even with increasing low-level moisture and minimal CINH, surface-based pre-frontal semi-discrete development will probably be muted by persistent cloud cover and a lack of more robust heating.

The net result, as supported by most convection-allowing model guidance, will likely be development of a thin, low-topped QLCS, especially across the Tennessee Valley. Where storms become surface-rooted and intensify this afternoon, very strong low/mid-level wind profiles will support a damaging wind threat. The potential for a couple of tornadoes should maybe greatest across MS into western AL and TN. The wind and tornado threat will diminish after sunset and should end entirely by late evening.

NOTICE: SPC HAS UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK

UPDATED Convective Outlook 

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA…MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

UPDATED: Tornado Probability Outlook 

Original Outlook…

Convective Outlook

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY…

Tornado Probability Outlook

Damaging Wind Outlook


Tornado Watch has been issued!

Tornado Watch for portions of Western and northern Alabama – Central and Eastern Mississippi – Western and Middle Tennessee

Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 700 PM CST.

Primary threats include…

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY…

An increasingly well-organized squall line is expected to race east-northeastward across parts of the region, with other potentially more isolated storms ahead of the line across Mississippi into western/northern Alabama. Although the air mass is not overly unstable, very strong low-level/deep-layer winds will support bowing segments along with embedded mesovortices capable of wind damage and some tornado risk. The overall severe risk should wane by early evening in most areas.


Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Indiana Western and central Kentucky

Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 600 PM CST.

Primary threats include…

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY…

A fast-northeastward-moving squall line will pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Additionally, adequate low-level moisture and very strong low-level shear could support a brief tornado.


Stay Weather Aware – Stay Weather Alert!

Have those weather radios on!