Michael upgraded to Category 1 hurricane & expected to further strengthen to a major hurricane by landfall

Michael upgraded to a hurricane and is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall later this week

Michael, now a Category 1 hurricane creating havoc in Cuba, is forecasted to be a “dangerous MAJOR hurricane” when it slams the US Gulf Coast on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The forecast indicates Michael may be a Category 3 hurricane — with winds from 111 to 129 mph — when it strikes landfall. Though some forecasts indicated a possible Category 4 hurricane, at this time this seems unlikely. (See below for the latest chart strength)

“Life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity,” the center said. “Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”

Floridians urged to prepare after Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency for 26 counties.

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

…MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING

EXPECTED…

…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA…

…RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND

DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…21.2N 84.9W

ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 140 MI…220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide…

Indian Pass to Crystal River…8-12 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass…5-8 ft

Crystal River to Anclote River…4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft

Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line…2-4 ft

 

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part

of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

 

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through the weekend…

Western Cuba…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas…4 to 8

inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic

States, and the southern New England coast…2 to 4 inches with

local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-

threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula…1 to 2 inches.

 

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.