Enhance Severe Weather Threat Today – Tornadoes and Damaging Winds!

Enhance Severe Threat Today! – UPDATED for TORNADO WATCH ISSUED!

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and tonight!

A few tornadoes are still possible with the more intense storms, along with damaging wind gusts!

Categorical Outlook

Tornado Probabilities | 10% Tornado Risk (Yellow Area)

Damaging Winds

Hail Probabilities

Overview Outlook

…Eastern/central Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States…

Multi-round severe convection is possible across parts of the region this afternoon into tonight, particularly for the eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia, where semi-discrete warm sector storms this afternoon/early evening could be followed by a well-organized convective line late this evening and early in the overnight.

Multi-layer cloud cover remains prevalent at midday across the region with air mass modification occurring near the coastal Carolinas where low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints are becoming more prevalent.

North/northeastward-racing bands of convection over the eastern Carolinas will persist through the afternoon where the convection should gradually intensify as it becomes rooted within the increasingly moist/unstable boundary layer, although the persistent cloud cover and the possibility of a lingering warm layer aloft leads to some temporal uncertainty.

Regardless, extremely strong low-level/deep-layer shear, accentuated by 55-60 kt in the lowest 1 km AGL and 300+ 0-1 km SRH, will be supportive of fast-moving supercells capable of a tornado/damaging wind risk, particularly late this afternoon through early evening.

Given the magnitude of the vertical shear/SRH, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, as previously mentioned, an additional round of regional severe risk will likely occur this evening into the overnight as a strongly forced convective line evolves and spreads east-northeastward across the Carolinas and coastal Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva.

Damaging winds are the most probable severe hazard, although a QLCS-related tornado risk may exist as well.

…Florida/Georgia…

A northeast/southwest-oriented composite convective line across southern Georgia/Florida Panhandle at late morning immediately precedes an eastward-moving cold front.

Some additional moistening/diurnal destabilization will occur across the Florida Peninsula into far southern Georgia ahead of the front/convective line, with surface-based destabilization otherwise remaining minimal farther north into central/eastern Georgia.

Low-level/deep-layer winds will further strengthen across the region, although low-level winds will tend to slowly veer with wind profiles trending more unidirectional over time.

Even with relatively modest buoyancy, this scenario will support further organization and development of upscale-growing quasi-linear convective bands this afternoon.

An isolated damaging wind/tornado risk will exist across the region through the afternoon, with the overall severe risk shifting eastward/tending to diminish toward and after sunset.

SPC/Storm Prediction Center: Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020

TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina, Eastern South Carolina, and Coastal Waters

Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM EST.

Primary threats include…

A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY…

The air mass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will moisten and modestly destabilize this afternoon.

Very strong winds through a deep layer will support the possibility of supercell storms including a tornado and damaging wind risk.

An additional round of storms, perhaps as a well-organized line, will also move into the region from the west late this evening and potentially pose a severe threat.

SPC/Storm Prediction Center: Grams/Guyer.. 12/24/2020

Are you prepared?

Now will be a good time to check your weather radios and have several ways to receive watches & warnings!

Download the WeatherBug app to receive free weather alerts! – Know Before | iOS App – Android App

NOTE:
UPDATES TO THIS BLOG WILL REFLECT THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH ONCE ISSUED!